NFL Week 3 Picks & Previews

NFL Week 3 Picks & Previews

Last week was pretty good for me. It could have been even better if Jacksonville and Denver could have held onto leads in the closing minutes of their games, but nobody is perfect (although 15-1 on the money line would have been pretty damn near close).

Record Summary

  • Straight Up: 13-3 (overall, 22-10)
  • Against the Spread (ATS): 11-5 (19-13)
  • Over/Under: 6-10 (13-19)

Thursday

Dolphins @ Bills — Spread: Bills −11.5 — O/U: 50.5

The Dolphins did just good enough against the Patriots to save Mike McDaniel's job for another couple of weeks. It wasn't looking good after the Dolphins went down two touchdowns in the first quarter, but they fought back, admirably, and should have won the game if Devon Achane didn't step out of bounds on what could have been a game winning long touchdown catch and run in the final two minutes.

I expected a letdown by the Bills against the Jets after their exciting come-from-behind win against the Ravens. There was no let down. They crushed the Jets, 30-6.

Prediction: Bills 33, Dolphins 17. Take the BILLS and the UNDER.


Sunday (Early Slate)

Packers @ Browns — Spread: Packers −7.5 | O/U: 41.5

The Browns' defense is pretty good. Their offense isn't. But that defense will make it tough for teams not named The Ravens to blow them out. The Packers aren't the Ravens, but their defense with Micah Parsons is better. The Browns may not score a touchdown.

Prediction: Packers 16, Browns 9. Take the BROWNS and the UNDER.


Colts @ Titans — Spread: Colts −4.5 | O/U: 43.5

The Colts and Daniel Jones continue to impress. Rigoberto Sanchez has the best job in America. He is the Indianapolis punter. The Colts haven't needed to punt through their first two games.

Prediction: Colts 26, Titans 20. Take the COLTS and the OVER.


Bengals @ Vikings — Spread: Vikings −2.5 | O/U: 41.5

Is Joe Burrow this generation's Andrew Luck? He has all the talent in the world, but he can't stay on the field. Blame Cincinnati management for not protecting him by not getting him an offensive line. Jake Browning is 4-3 as a starter and has completed 71% of his passes. You could do much worse in terms of backup QBs.

This will be a game of backup quarterbacks as JJ McCarthy is also out for Minnesota. That means this will be Carson Wentz for Minnesota against Jake Browning. Wentz is 44-43-1 as a starter in his ten-year career. Remarkably, he is still only 32. It feels like he should be much older.

Prediction: Vikings 17, Bengals 16. Take the BENGALS and the UNDER.


Steelers @ Patriots — Spread: Steelers −1.5 | O/U: 44.5

If Devon Achane didn't step out of bounds at the end of the Patriots-Miami game,the vibe in New England would be much different this week. As it is, the crowd will be hyped up at Gillette Stadium when Pittsburgh and Aaron Rodgers come to town.

The Patriots made the adjustments they needed to from Week 1 to Week 2. Drake Maye went from 46 pass attempts to 23 pass attempts. Josh McDaniels stuck with the running game and Rhamondre Stevenson rewarded him.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Steelers 17. Take the PATRIOTS and the UNDER.


Rams @ Eagles — Spread: Eagles −3.5 | O/U: 44.5

The Eagles are 2-0 and Saquon Barkley (3.7 yards per carry) hasn't gotten going yet. Maybe we were spoiled by last year. A.J. Brown only has 35 yards receiving through two games.

The Rams are also 2-0, yet they are in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC West with the 49ers and Cardinals. This is a rematch of the NFC Divisional Round playoff game where Philly held on to win 28-22 on their way to their Super Bowl championship. The weather will be better this time around. No snow squalls.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Rams 17. Take the EAGLES and the UNDER.


Jets @ Buccaneers — Spread: Buccaneers −7 | O/U: 45.5

The Jets looked good in Week 1 and then laid an egg in Week 2 at home against the Bills. Justin Fields will be out this week with a concussion. Does it matter?

Baker Mayfield is fast becoming one of my favorite players in the NFL to watch.

Prediction: Bucs 20, Jets 16. Take JETS and the UNDER.


Raiders @ Commanders — Spread: Commanders −3.5 | O/U: 44.5

Jayden Daniels hasn't looked like himself this season and now he has a bum knee. I don't know what happened to Geno Smith and the Raiders on Monday night against the Chargers. They didn't put up a fight at all.

Prediction: Commanders 23, Raiders 20. Take the RAIDERS and the UNDER.


Falcons @ Panthers — Spread: Falcons −3.5 | O/U: 43.5

Bryce Young is back to sucking. He led a valiant comeback in the second half (12/18, 138 yards, 2 TD) after trailing to the Cardinals, 27-3. He did just good enough to screw me over on the Arizona cover.

The Falcons are looking like they may be a formidable playoff team. Michael Penix wasn't a top overall pick like Young, but he already looks like a better quarterback. Then again, Penix is older than Young.

Prediction: Falcons 29, Panthers 13. Take the FALCONS and the UNDER.


Sunday (Late Slate)

Broncos @ Chargers — Spread: Chargers −2.5 | O/U: 45.5

I could be sipping on a drink with an umbrella in it on a beach on a tropical island right now. But – as John Belushi would have said – noooooooooooooo! The Broncos had the win in the bag when Indianapolis missed a 60-yard field goal, but Denver was flagged for leverage.

The Chargers look like they are braced to take the mantle away from the Kansas City Chiefs at the top of the AFC West mountain top. Except there are no mountains in Kansas.

Prediction: Chargers 22, Broncos 19. Take the CHARGERS and the UNDER.


Saints @ Seahawks — Spread: Seahawks −7.5 | O/U: 42.5

The Saints made Mac Jones look like, well, Brock Purdy. The Seahawks could be a sneaky good team this year.

Prediction: Seahawks 28, Saints 16. Take the SEAHAWKS and the OVER.


Cardinals @ 49ers — Spread: 49ers −1.5 | O/U: 43.5

Brock Purdy has surprised people by showing up at practice the last couple of days. I doubt he will be able to go Sunday. Mac Jones showed what he can do if he is in the right situation. Can he sustain it? The 49ers hope he only has to do it one more week.

Predictions: Cardinals 26, Niners 21. Take the CARDINALS and the OVER.


Cowboys @ Bears — Spread: Bears −1.5 | O/U: 48.5

I won't pick the Bears to win until they prove to me they can. The Cowboys are too high-powered of an offense for the Bears to even remotely keep up with.

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Bears 20. Take the COWBOYS and the OVER.


Sunday Night Football

Chiefs @ Giants — Spread: Chiefs −5.5 | O/U: 42.5

Could the Chiefs go 0-3? They could if they were playing someone besides the Giants.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Giants 13. Take the CHIEFS and the UNDER.


Monday Night Football

Lions @ Ravens — Spread: Ravens −6 | O/U: 51.5

Jared Goff threw 5 TDs last week. He will have games like that over the course of the year, but it won't happen again this week. Don't be fooled by last week's game against the Bears, the Lions aren't in the same class as the Ravens.

Prediction: Ravens 37, Lions 20. Take the RAVENS and the OVER.