NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Patriots Challenging Bills, Chiefs Getting Weapons Back, Ravens in Trouble
NFL Week 5 predictions from ToBra Sports.

My moneyline picks remain solid, but my picks against the spread and on total points continue to spin their wheels in mediocrity. Week 5 feels like the time to gain traction.
Last Week
- Straight Up: 10-5-1
- Against the Spread (ATS): 7-9
- Over/Under: 8-8
For the Season
- Straight Up: 41-21-1 (65.1%)
- Against the Spread (ATS): 34-29 (54%)
- Over/Under: 29-34 (46%)
Let's take a look at this week's matchups:
Thursday
- 49ers @ Rams — Spread: RAMS -7.5 | O/U: 45.5

Brock Purdy returned last week, but it wasn't enough to beat Liam Coen's Jaguars. Purdy reaggravated his turf toe injury and won't be able to go on a short week against the Rams. Mac Jones hurt his knee in his last start, but was a full participant in practice all week. It won't be easy for him as he will be without wide receivers Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. The 49ers have already been without George Kittle most of the season. Christian McCaffrey can't do it all, can he?
The Rams won a game maybe they shouldn't have won if Indianapolis' Adonai Mitchell didn't decide to celebrate at the one-yard line on what should have been a 76-yard touchdown reception and then commit a holding penalty on a 53-yard touchdown run by Jonathan Taylor. This should be an easy win for the Rams.
Prediction: Rams 27, San Francisco 16. Take the RAMS and the UNDER.
Sunday
- Vikings @ Browns— Spread: VIK −3.5 | O/U: 36.5
Cleveland has decided to pick now to replace veteran Joe Flacco with rookie southpaw Dillon Gabriel. Against the Vikings defense? Does Cleveland's management know what they're doing?
This is a ridiculously low point total, but I can't see Cleveland putting up enough points to help Minnesota get to 37.
Prediction: Vikings 23, Browns 9. Take the VIKINGS and the UNDER.
- Dolphins @ Panthers — Spread: MIA −1.5 | O/U: 44.5

The Dolphins won their first game Monday night against the lowly, highly penalized New York Jets. They lost Tyreek Hill, though, to an ugly knee injury.
The Panthers scored an opening touchdown then went on to give up 42 consecutive points to the New England Patriots. How much longer before they move on from Bryce Young?
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Carolina 16. Take MIAMI and the UNDER.
- Cowboys @ Jets — Spread: DAL −2.5 | O/U: 47.5
That was an embarrassing performance by the Jets on Monday night against the Dolphins. It reminded me of watching the Patriots under Jerod Mayo last year. I'm not sure Aaron Glenn's team will win as many as Mayo did last year – 4.
Dak Prescott's home/road splits are pretty dramatic. I'm not going to soon forget his performance in Chicago a couple of weeks ago.
Prediction: Cowboys 30, Jets 23. Take the COWBOYS and the OVER.
- Raiders @ Colts— Spread: IND −6.5 | O/U: 47.5

What can I say about Geno Smith? The guy has been a turnover machine this year - seven interceptions thrown. Even worse it seems like he doesn't care. The times I have watched him play it looks like the 34-year-old has lost interest in the game. Maybe he is having some off the field issues, but his head doesn't look in the game right now.
The Colts found a way to lose last week against the Rams, but they still looked good. Get on this one before the line moves over 7.
Prediction: Colts 31, Raiders 24. Take the COLTS and the OVER.
- Broncos @ Eagles— Spread: PHI −3.5 | O/U: 43.5
Philadelphia just keeps rolling. They are now 4-0 and it really doesn't feel like they have played close to their best yet. Saquon Barkley is still yet to get started. He is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry after averaging 5.8 last year.
Prediction: Eagles 26, Broncos 16. Take the EAGLES and the UNDER.
- Giants @ Saints — Spread: NO -1.5| O/U: 41.5

The good news for the Giants is they may have found something with their rookie quarterback, Jaxson Dart. The bad news is they definitely lost something in Malik Nabors for the season.
The Saints put up a, surprisingly, good fight against the Bills in Buffalo.
Prediction: Giants 20, Saints 14. Take the GIANTS and the UNDER.
- Texans @ Ravens— Spread: HOU -1.5 | O/U: 40.5

Lamar Jackson might not be able to go in this one due to a hamstring injury. Cooper Rush is a capable back-up. Look for the Ravens to rely heavily on Derrick Henry. It should be enough to beat the Texans. Their season depends on it.
Prediction: Ravens 22, Texans 20. Take the RAVENS and the OVER.
- Titans @ Cardinals — Spread: ARI −7.5 | O/U: 41.5
I learned my lesson. Rule #1 – I am not picking the Titans until they prove me wrong. This is a big point spread to give the Cardinals against any team, but remember Rule #1.
Prediction: Cardinals 26, Titans 10. Take the CARDINALS and the UNDER.
- Buccaneers @ Seahawks — Spread: SEA −3.5 | O/U: 44.5

Rule #2 – Never bet against Baker Mayfield on the road. Seattle is real good, but they almost blew a sure thing against the Cardinals last week. This will be a battle between two quarterbacks who were cast off by the Carolina Panthers. They should have some good stories to share at midfield after the game. In the meantime...
Oh wait, on Wednesday news broke that Tampa workhorse running back Bucky Irving is wearing a boot on his left foot and utilizing crutches. His status for Sunday is in serious doubt. Mmmmm... remember rule #2... remember rule #2...
Prediction: Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 17. Take the SEAHAWKS and the UNDER.
- Lions @ Bengals — Spread: DET −10.5 | O/U: 49.5
Don't make me laugh.
Prediction: Lions 41, Bengals 13. Take the LIONS and the OVER.
- Commanders @ Chargers — Spread: LAC −2.5 | O/U: 48.5
The Chargers are 3-1, but they are in trouble. Their offensive line is decimated and it cost them against the Giants. The Commanders should be getting Jayden Daniels back.
Prediction: Commanders 30, Chargers 23. Take the COMMANDERS and the OVER.
- Patriots @ Bills— Spread: BUF −7.5 | O/U: 49.5

Well what do we have here? The Patriots' future may be here sooner than we thought. This is a team that very easily could, and maybe should, be 4-0. Drake Maye is quietly already a top ten quarterback. He leads the NFL in completion percentage. If he leads his Patriots to an upset over the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo, you may start hearing whispers of "MVP" associated with Drake Maye. New England has four very winnable games after this one. Actually, with Burrow out in Cincinnati – Baltimore, Buffalo (twice), Tampa, and maybe Atlanta, are the toughest games left on the schedule. 11-6 is fully in play for the Patriots, and possibly even better. This week will be a measuring stick.
Prediction: Patriots 33, Bills 30. Take the PATRIOTS and the OVER.
- Chiefs @ Jaguars— Spread: KC −3.5 | O/U: 46.5
The Chiefs enter Du-valllllll country. Liam Coen has won three of his first four games as head coach of the Jaguars. Unfortunately, he is catching the Chiefs at a bad time as they got wide receiver Xavier Worthy back last week. Much like the Patriots with the Bills, this game against the Chiefs will be a barometer check for Liam Coen and his Jaguars.
Prediction: Chiefs 26, Jaguars 19. Take the CHIEFS and the UNDER.