Memo to NFL players: When racing to the end zone uncontested with the football in your hands, hold onto it until you pass the goal posts before celebrating. Maybe even wait until you get to the stands. See Forrest Gump.

Real simple. Adonai Mitchell and Emari Demercado are the poster children for dropping the football prematurely just before crossing the goal line. Mitchell would have had a 76-yard TD catch two weeks ago and Demercado would have had a 72-yard TD run. Woulda. Coulda. Shoulda.

My record wasn't as good as I would have liked in Week 5, but something tells me I was not alone. That's OK, though, the Patriots and Jaguars upsets on Sunday and Monday night more than made up for the other losses, monetarily. Like Rosie Perez tried explaining to an uncomprehending Woody Harrelson in White Men Can't Jump, "Sometimes when you win, you lose. And sometimes when you lose, you win."

Last Week

• Straight Up:  6-8
• Against the Spread (ATS):  7-7
• Over/Under: 6-8

For the Season

• Straight Up: 47-29-1 (61%)
• Against the Spread (ATS): 41-38 (51.9%)
• Over/Under: 35-42 (45.5%)

As we prepare to finish the first third of the season, let's take a look at this week's games:

Thursday Night Football

• Eagles @ Giants — Spread: Eagles −7 | O/U: 40.5.

The Giants blew a big lead and lost. They weren't alone last week. The Giants handed the game to the hapless Saints, turning the ball over five times. The Giants should be getting running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. back. They won't be getting Malik Nabors back anytime soon, though.

Prediction: Eagles 26, Giants 17. Take the EAGLES and the OVER.

Sunday Slate

• Broncos @ Jets — Spread: Broncos −7.5 | O/U: 43.5

The Jets were down 23-3 at halftime to the Cowboys. They were a total mess the week before in a national prime team game against Miami. The Broncos came back from two touchdowns down to snap the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles' 12-game home winning streak.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Jets 19. Take the JETS and the UNDER.

• Cardinals @ Colts — Spread: Colts −6.5 | O/U: 47.5

Indianapolis keeps rolling. The Cardinals were another team who blew a big lead last week, thanks in part to the Demercardo brain freeze. Now they may be without quarterback Kyler Murray.

Prediction: Colts 28, Cardinals 17. Take the COLTS and the UNDER.

• Cowboys @ Panthers — Spread: Cowboys −3 | O/U: 49.5

The Panthers were another one of those teams to make an improbable comeback last week. The Cowboys can score with the best of them, even without CeeDee Lamb. JaVonte Williams has given the offense a dimension they haven't had in years – a running game. It's just a matter of whether or not the other team can outscore them. I know – great analysis, right?

Prediction: Cowboys 36, Panthers 23. Take the COWBOYS and the OVER.

• Chargers @ Dolphins — Spread: Chargers −4.5 | O/U: 44.5

The Chargers are decimated, offensively. Their top two running backs are out and three-fifths of their starting offensive line could be out. The Dolphins also blew a 17-0 lead last week – to Carolina. How does McDaniel still have a job after that?

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Chargers 23. Take the DOLPHINS and the OVER.

• Rams @ Ravens — Spread: Rams −7.5 | O/U: 44.5

Can you believe the Ravens are 1-4? Can you believe they are still -160 favorites to win the AFC North? I still haven't forgiven the Rams for losing to Mac Jones and Kendrick Bourne.

Prediction: Rams 34, Ravens 19. Take the RAMS and the OVER.

• Browns @ Steelers — Spread: Steelers −5.5 | O/U: 37.5

The Steelers are the team that should feel most insulted by the Ravens still being favored to win the AFC North. The Steelers are 3-1. The Steelers are in the AFC North. And the Steelers have Aaron Rodgers. Or is it because they have Aaron Rodgers?

Prediction: Steelers 19, Browns 16. Take the BROWNS and the UNDER.

• Patriots @ Saints — Spread: Patriots −3.5 | O/U: 45.5

All a-board! The Patriots train is about to pick up speed so you better jump on now. Here is New England's next seven games until they meet the Bills again Foxboro – at New Orleans, at Tennessee, Browns, Falcons, at Tampa Bay, NY Jets, at Cincinnati (no Joe Burrow), and the NY Giants. Any of them besides Tampa worry you? We may look back on a beautiful warm Sunday night in Buffalo in late October 2025 as the day the Patriots' franchise announced, "Weeeee're baaaack!"

Prop bet bonus: Vrabel is a players' coach and Kayshon Boutte is returning to New Orleans where he played college football at LSU. Vrabel will look to give him a cookie. Boutte is +300 to score a touchdown in most books.

Prediction: Patriots 36, Saints 16. Take the PATRIOTS and the OVER.

• Seahawks @ Jaguars — Spread: Jaguars −1.5 | O/U: 46.5

What a game between the Seahawks and the Bucs last week – 38-35, Tampa. That game and the opening week Monday night game between the Ravens and Bills are the front runners for the Game of the Year. The Jaguars had a pretty exciting game on Monday night against Kansas City, themselves. They, however, were on the winning side. I am expecting a bit of a let-down from Jacksonville and the Seahawks have been better on the road than at home.

Prediction: Seahawks 28, Jaguars 20. Take the SEAHAWKS and the OVER.

• Titans @ Raiders — Spread: Raiders −4.5 | O/U: 41.5

This one is tough. These are two really bad teams. I can't see the Raiders being -4.5 favorites against anybody at this point. Not with Geno Smith throwing interceptions like he has been doing.

Prediction: Raiders 17, Titans 16. Take the TITANS and the UNDER.

• Bengals @ Packers — Spread: Packers −14 | O/U: 44.5

The Bengals traded for Joe Flacco on Wednesday. And he will start for the Bengals on Sunday. Against Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau. This will be one of those covers that makes absolutely no logical sense, but you see it happen all the time in the betting world.

Prediction: Packers 31, Bengals 23. Take the BENGALS and the OVER.

• 49ers @ Buccaneers — Spread: Buccaneers −3 | O/U: 47.5

I violated my Rule #2 last week. I'm sorry, Baker. I said never bet against Mayfield on the road as an underdog, but then news broke that running back Bucky Irving was out, and Mike Evans was already out. What could I do?

I could've put my faith in Baker Mayfield.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, San Francisco 22. Take SAN FRANCISCO and the UNDER.

• Lions @ Chiefs — Spread: Chiefs −2.5 | O/U: 52.5

Everything broke the Chiefs' way last year. Every close game went their way. Let me introduce you to a little something called The Law of Averages.

Prediction: Lions 36, Chiefs 33. Take DETROIT and the OVER.

Monday Night Football

• Bills @ Falcons — Spread: Bills −4.5 | O/U: 49.5

The Bills better watch their backs. The Patriots are on their heels and, as of right now, New England holds the tiebreaker. Booooooh!

Prediction: Bills 33, Falcons 26. Take BUFFALO and the OVER.

• Bears @ Commanders — Spread: Commanders −4.5 | O/U: 49.5

The bye came at a horrible time not just for the Bears' team, but maybe for Caleb Williams' early career. His last two games may have been the best two-game stretch of his brief NFL career. Can he carry it over against the number two draft pick in the same draft he went first?

Prediction: Bears 31, Commanders 28. Take CHICAGO and the OVER.