Patriots Roster Watch: Revisiting My May Predictions

In early May, I wrote an article for ToBra Sports assigning percentages to veteran players' chances of making the Patriots roster. That piece came right after the Patriots cut ties with Davon Godchaux, Deatrich Wise, Ja'Whaun Bentley, Joe Cardona, and David Andrews.

The message was clear: new head coach Mike Vrabel wanted a fresh start. Anyone tied to Bill Belichick’s era had a target on their back. Watching the first episode of Forged—where Vrabel stressed starting a new legacy—only reinforced that.

Now, with just one preseason game left, I revisit my predictions. Let's take a look at how the last few months may have changed my thinking:

Kyle Dugger — May: 56% → August: 25%

Nothing against Dugger, but this is the prediction I’m most proud of. I didn't hear anyone in May talking about the possibility of the 29-year-old veteran safety not making the roster. Yet in the final moments of the second preseason game, with most starters on the sideline with their pads off and joking around, Dugger was on the field with the third defensive unit. That's not a good sign.

Ja’Lynn Polk — May: 92% → August: Season-Ending IR

I will follow my proudest pick with my most embarrassing miss. I thought Polk might rebound under Vrabel, but he never seemed to have recovered from offseason shoulder surgery. He re-aggravated the shoulder in the first preseason game while getting tackled on an end-around. The injury might allow the Patriots to put him on season-ending injured reserve which could allow the Patriots to try again next year to salvage their second round pick from a year ago.

Javon Baker — May: 6% → August: 33%

Give Baker credit: he worked his way back into the conversation for roster consideration with strong practices and a willingness to play special teams. Unfortunately, his game-day performances haven’t matched. Rookie Efton Chism III has passed him on the depth chart, meaning Baker only makes the team if Vrabel decides to keep seven wide receivers. Highly unlikely.

Kendrick Bourne — May: 9% → August: 9%

Bourne hasn’t been seen since injuring himself at a private practice for season ticket holders and Foxboro residents in Gillette Stadium in early camp. He may return for the preseason finale, but he'll be receiving passes from Joshua Dobbs and Ben Wooldridge. It will be hard to impress like that.

DeMario Douglas — May: 87% → Today: 99.9%

Douglas makes the roster, but I’m not as high on him as others. He’s explosive, yet his size limits him. Drake Maye has caught a lot of flack for getting away with not throwing an interception in the Minnesota game for a pass that ticked off a wide open Douglas' fingertips into a defender's chest (which the defender dropped). The throw was not the issue. Had it been 6'4" Mack Hollins instead of the 5'8" Douglas on the receiving end, Hollins would have caught the ball in stride without having had to leave his feet.

Douglas and Maye just have not been able to get on the same page in their limited time playing together. I don't think it is a marriage meant to last.

Rhamondre Stevenson — May: 95% → Today: 99.9%

Back in May, I listed Stevenson only because of his hefty contract, fumbling issues, and the arrival of rookie TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson must have seen the warning signs– like I did–and showed up in peak condition. He will be on a shorter leash this year if his fumbling problems continue, but he should still get a large percentage of the workload in the Patriots backfield.

Antonio Gibson — May: 36% → Today: 99.4%

Same story as Stevenson. Henderson’s draft status made Gibson’s role more tenuous. I wasn't sure if Gibson would be open to being demoted to third string, but there seems to be good chemistry between the three running backs (for now). I also felt that rookie free agent Lan Larison might make Gibson expendable, but Larison ended up on season-ending injured reserve--securing Gibson's spot.

I think Vrabel is going to employ a run-heavy offense and there will be plenty of touches to keep all three running backs happy.

Vederian Lowe — May: 13% → August: 13%

The rise of rookie Marcus Bryant is bad news for Lowe. If Vrabel wants to erase the stink of last year from this team, Lowe has to go.

Cole Strange — May: 88% → Today: 25%

I had high hopes for Strange. I really did. I am rooting for the guy. It is not his fault Belichick drafted him as high as he did.

Vrabel started journeyman center Ben Brown at left guard against the Vikings. That does not bode well for Strange. Strange had already lost his job to rookie Jared Wilson earlier in camp. Now he was watching someone start in his place who--up to a couple of weeks ago--had never taken any snaps at guard.

Garrett Bradbury — May: 43% → Today: 50.1%

Bradbury has been shaky but continues to get starter reps. He got pushed back into Maye and put on his ass on one pass play in the Minnesota game. On at least two other run plays, he completely whiffed on his blocks. If Brown and/or Wilson are good enough to start at left guard, they should be better than Bradbury at center.

I'd rather cut ties with Bradbury now and not risk having to lose Strange, Caedan Wallace, or Layden Robinson. I doubt Vrabel agrees with me now, but I think it will be painfully obvious to everyone in a short period of time that Bradbury is washed up.

Jahlani Tavai — May: 16% → Today: 15%

Injuries have kept Tavai sidelined making it tough to evaluate his fit with Vrabel's unit. Placing him on injured reserve is an option to keep him around a little longer, just in case.

Marte Mapu — May: 64% → Today: 8%

Mapu has been invisible. NBC’s Phil Perry doesn’t even mention him anywhere in his 53-man projection article. Perry does have Tavai making the team. I’d prefer Mapu’s upside over Tavai, but it’s very possible neither makes the cut.

Jabrill Peppers — May: 86% → Today: 99.9%

The only concern with Peppers was how Vrabel would view his off-field issues from last year. He is the only captain from the start of last year's season to survive Vrabel's butcher block. Peppers' playing style embodies everything Vrabel believes in--controlled violence, emotion, and leadership.

Final Thoughts

The Patriots’ roster picture is far clearer now than it was back in May, but nothing is final until NFL cutdown day on Tuesday, August 26. That’s the deadline when every team must trim down to 53 players, with waiver claims and practice squad signings beginning the following day.

For New England, the biggest storylines remain the same: how aggressively Mike Vrabel wants to sever ties with previous regimes and forge his own path, which young players have shown improvement and proven they can contribute this year, and whether highly paid veterans are worth their contracts and may accept reduced roles.

As cutdown day approaches, one missed block, one mental gaffe, one drop, one fumble could mean the difference between making the team or trying to find employment elsewhere.