Week 1 NFL Picks: Which teams will regress and which ones will take the next step up?
Coming off a strong 2024 season, I’m back with another full slate of NFL picks for 2025. Last year, my predictions hit at nearly a 70% clip straight up (139–69), with a sharp 55.1% record against the spread (113–90–2). Picking total points in games I finished at 51.7% (106-99). I'll take it!
This year, I'm hoping to top those numbers. Every week I’ll take a look at each game, list the spreads and over/under point totals, and give some quick (sometimes, hopefully, funny) thoughts — ending with a prediction and a pick on both the spread and the total. Just like last year, I’ll track my weekly record and keep a running season tally so you can follow along from September through January. Heed my advice with caution or, better yet, fade my picks and bet your hard-earned money the opposite way.
Let’s get this season started.
Thursday, September 4 – Season Opener
- Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles –8.5 | Total: 48.5
The Eagles begin defense of their Super Bowl title at home against the Cowboys in the featured first game of the season. I can't even imagine what the thinking is in the Cowboys locker room after their owner traded away their best player.
Prediction: Eagles 28, Cowboys 13. Take the EAGLES and the UNDER.
Friday, September 5 – International Game (Brazil)
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs –3.5 | Total: 46.5
The Chargers have had to live almost nine months with the bitter taste in their mouths of their pathetic Wild Card playoff performance against Houston. The Chargers running game is vastly improved over past years with the additions of rookie Omarion Hampton and veteran Najai Harris.
The Chiefs also ended last season with a bad taste in their mouth with their pursuit of a three-peat coming up just short thanks to an uncharacteristically subpar performance in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs won a lot of close games last year. I think this year the law of averages kicks in.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Chiefs 20. Take the CHARGERS and the UNDER
Sunday, September 7 – Afternoon Games
- New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
Spread: Commanders –6.5 | Total: 45.5
The Commanders are due for a letdown after surprising everyone last year by making it to the NFC Championship Game. They are going with 30-year-old Austin Ekeler as their starting running back after trading Brian Robinson to the 49ers. They will be relying even more on second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels– who performed Houdini-like magic acts last year pulling last second victories from his hat (helmet?). I sense some regression coming.
Prediction: NY Giants 20, Commanders 19. Take the GIANTS and the UNDER.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Buccaneers –1.5 | Total: 47.5
I'm a big believer in Liam Coen and I think Baker Mayfield and the Bucs' offense is going to suffer with his departure. The Bucs come into the season opener already banged up. Wide receivers Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan are out and tight end Cade Otten has been hampered with hamstring issues in camp.
The Falcons are loaded on offense, but they burned me a lot last year. But this year the Falcons will be rolling with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback instead of "Checkdown" Kirk Cousins. I never learn my lessons...
Prediction: Falcons 34, Bucs 27. Take ATLANTA and the OVER.
- Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars –3.5 | Total: 46.5
(See above – "I'm a big believer in Liam Coen." Du-valllllll)
Full disclosure – I may be a bit biased in this one. Liam's father was my high school head football coach back in 1987. If "Mr. Coen" has any impact on his son, these Jaguars will overachieve. I've never been a believer in Carolina's Bryce Young despite his strong second half last season.
Prediction: Jaguars 31, Panthers 20. Take the JAGUARS and the OVER.
- Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts –1.5 | Total: 46.5
This game stinks like a fish, or is it a mammal? Dolphins' speedsters De'Von Achane and Tyreek Hill are listed as questionable. Colts' quarterback Daniel Jones isn't listed as questionable, but is a questionable NFL starting quarterback. Hmmm... who to pick?
The Colts haven't won an Opening Day game since 2013. The streak continues.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Colts 19. Take the DOLPHINS and the UNDER.
- Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots –2.5 | Total: 44.5
The Patriots come into the season with high expectations. They loaded up on the defense in the offseason and they are hoping for a second year jump out of Drake Maye behind an improved offensive line. The line couldn't be any worse than last year. New head coach Mike Vrabel turned over almost half the roster from last year. I think it will take some time for the team to gel. New England also has a rookie place kicker who may not have deserved to have won the job over John Parker Romo in camp. This game should come down to a field goal.
Pete Carroll will become the oldest person in NFL history to head coach a game when he takes the sidelines in Foxboro. The Patriots may be without cornerback Christian Gonzalez and they will be looking to corral rookie stud running back Ashton Jeanty, and All-World tight end Brock Bowers. Maybe New England's D could use someone like Jabrill Peppers as a box safety. Just sayin'.
Prediction: Raiders 20, Patriots 17. Take the RAIDERS and the UNDER.
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets
Spread: Steelers –2.5 | Total: 38.5
It's a revenge game for both starting quarterbacks. Yes, Justin Fields played for the Steelers last season. I'm sure Aaron Rodgers will get a warm welcome back to New York. Yeah, right. The Jets will look to run the ball down Pittsburgh's throat. This game has the lowest point total line for a reason. Both offenses are... well, offensive.
Prediction: Jets 17, Steelers 13. Take the J-E-T-S and the UNDER.
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Spread: Bengals –5.5 | Total: 48.5
The Bengals always get off to a slow start. But this is the Browns we are talking about here. Then again, the Bengals lost the opener to the Patriots last year and the Patriots proved to be a horrible team. But this is Cleveland... but Cincinnati always gets off to slow starts... but this is CLEVELAND...
Prediction: Bengals 28, Browns 17. Take the BENGALS and the UNDER.
- Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints
Spread: Cardinals –6.5 | Total: 43.5
The Saints should be in contention this year... for the top pick in next year's draft. I view the Cardinals like the Falcons. They are a tease. They always seem to have talent, but something never clicks. The Saints are just really bad.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Saints 9. Take the CARDINALS and the UNDER.
Sunday, September 7 – Late Afternoon Games
- San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Spread: 49ers –2.5 | Total: 43.5
San Fran comes in with a lot of hype this year and I don't get why. I've never been high on Brock Purdy and now he has less weapons to throw to than ever. Second year player Ricky Pearsall might be their best healthy wide receiver going into this game.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, San Francisco 23. Take the SEAHAWKS and the OVER.
- Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos –8.5 | Total: 42.5
This one has blow out written all over it. Broncos' head coach Sean Payton isn't one to take his foot off the pedal if his team gets up big. Number one draft pick Cam Ward begins his pro career against one of the top defenses in the league. Welcome to the NFL, kid!
Prediction: Broncos 38, Titans 13. Take the BRONCOS and the OVER.
- Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers –1.5 | Total: 47.5
This one should be fun. Not as much fun as if it were in Detroit, but it is still summertime in Green Bay so it should still be a fast track with lots of scoring. Time to get it going for the-best-regular-season-team-there-is-that-will-never-succeed-in-the-playoffs-because-of-their-head-coach-and-quarterback. But, damn, the Lions are fun to watch.
Prediction: Lions 34, Packers 24. Take the LIONS and the OVER.
- Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Rams –3.5 | Total: 43.5
Rams' quarterback Matthew Stafford is 37 years old and has been dealing with a bad back in camp. That's not good. He is expected to play in Week 1. If anything happens, my binky, Jimmy Garoppolo, is ready to step in! I always need a little Jimmy G in my life every year.
Prediction: Rams 24, Texans 20. Take the RAMS and the OVER.
Sunday Night Football
- Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills –1.5 | Total: 51.5
It's too soon in the season to have this great of a game. I'm not ready yet. Get ready to hear this for the first time of about ten times this year--"This could be a preview of the AFC Championship Game."
As such, this game is extremely important in the event of a tiebreaker at the end of the year to determine home field advantage. Lamar Jackson has to be a man on a mission this year to get the naysayers off his back. He will be turning 29 when the playoffs start in January, so he needs to put a Super Bowl on his resume to avoid going down as one of the best quarterbacks to never win a championship.
Prediction: Ravens 30, Bills 26. Take the RAVENS and the OVER.
Monday Night Football – September 8
- Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Spread: Vikings –1.5 | Total: 45.5
This will be the debut of offensive guru Ben Johnson as head coach of the Chicago Bears. He will be looking to turn around the fortunes of last year's top draft pick Caleb Williams and prevent him from being labeled a bust. The preseason was a mixed bag for Williams in very limited action. I've never been a believer in him.
The J.J. McCarthy Era is set to kick off for the Vikings. Who will have the better career – Caleb or J.J.? People would have laughed if you asked them that last year at this time. Now?
Prediction: Vikings 20, Bears 10. Take the VIKINGS and the UNDER.