Week 4 NFL Picks: Teams looking to rebound from tough losses

I had a feeling Week 3 was going to be a tough one. Sometimes you just know going in.

• I don't think anybody had the Browns beating the Packers – and that was probably the easiest game to pick on the schedule.
• The Rams blew a 26-7 lead to the Eagles and lost, 33-26.
• In that same Rams' game, the Eagles wound up covering on a blocked field goal returned, needlessly, for a touchdown.
• The Patriots had two out of their five turnovers happen at the goal line in a one touchdown loss to the Steelers.
• Baker Mayfield did it again – leads his third consecutive game winning scoring drive with under two minutes left in the game.
• Falcons were a complete no show in a 30-0 (!!!) loss to the Carolina Panthers (!!!).
• Ditto for the Cowboys.
• Mac Jones is now 2-0 as a starter for the 49ers.

When the dust settled, I was pleased to be a little over .500 for the week.

Record Summary

• Straight Up: 9-6 (overall, 31-16)
• Against the Spread (ATS): 8-7 (27-20)
• Over/Under: 8-7 (21-26)

Thursday

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals — Spread: SEA −1.5 | Over/Under: 43.5

The Seahawks are a sleeper team this year. They've now scored 75 points in the last two games while their defense hasn't given up more than 17 points in any game. Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has at least 96 yards receiving in his first three games and he is going up against a banged up Arizona secondary.

The Cardinals are always a tough team to handicap. It could be easier now that they will be without starting running back, James Connor, for the year.

Prediction: Seahawks 26, Cardinals 16. Take the SEAHAWKS and the UNDER.

Sunday

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers — Spread: MIN −2.5 | Over/Under: 40.5 (Ireland)

The Vikings dismantled the beleaguered Bengals, 48-10, in a battle of backup quarterbacks. The Steelers were handed an early Christmas gift by the Patriots. Make that five gifts. The Steelers won but they should have given up at least four touchdowns. Their defense has been awful all year. Jordan Mason will deserve a Guinness after he runs all over the Steelers in Dear Old Ireland. He is an underrated back.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Steelers 13. Take the VIKINGS and the UNDER.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants — Spread: LAC −6.5 | Over/Under: 43.5

It's Jaxson Dart time in New York. And not a moment too soon. Russell Wilson is washed up. Might as well cut him at this point. Brian Daboll is hitching his wagon to his rookie quarterback. It doesn't help that Daniel Jones is looking like an MVP candidate right now... with the Colts. Giants fans aren't too happy right.

Prediction: Chargers 28, Giants 20. Take the CHARGERS and the OVER.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans — Spread: HOU −7.5 | Over/Under: 38.5

The apple doesn't fall far from the tree. These two descendants of the Houston Oilers are both 0-3. How far have the Texans fallen? They were viewed as the "team of the future" two years ago. Now I am wondering if rookie Cam Ward (limited in practice this week with an ankle/calf injury) gets his first career win against them.

Prediction: Titans 22, Texans 20. Take the TITANS and the OVER.

Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons — Spread: WAS −1.5 | Over/Under: 44.5

How do you explain the Falcons scoring ZERO points against the Panthers? You have to be crazy to bet on sports. Call us crazy, then.

Prediction: Commanders 30, Falcons 16. Take the COMMANDERS and the OVER.

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills — Spread: BUF −15.5 | Over/Under: 47.5

The Saints are going on the road and playing outside... who am I kidding? This games needs no analysis.

Prediction: Bills 41, Saints 14. Take the BILLS and the OVER.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Spread: PHI −3.5 | Over/Under: 43.5

Tampa's Mike Evans will be sidelined for the next 3-4 weeks with... a hamstring injury. It is the football version of the movie "Groundhog Day." According to the website Fantasy Injury Team, this is the eighth hamstring injury of Evans' career. On the bright side, the Bucs may be getting wide receiver Chris Godwin back. Does it really matter who the receivers are when you have Baker Mayfield as your quarterback?

Prediction: Eagles 26, Buccaneers 24. Take the BUCS and the OVER.

Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions — Spread: DET −9.5 | Over/Under: 44.5

This isn't as laughable a game as it may have seemed a week ago. Both the Lions and the Browns raised my opinions of them last week. My opinion of the Lions started much higher, though.

Prediction: Lions 30, Browns 16. Take the LIONS and the OVER.

Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots — Spread: NE −5.5 | Over/Under: 42.5

The Panthers are no where as good as their 30-0 victory last week might indicate. And the Patriots are no where near as bad as their 21-14 defeat may look like.

Statistically, Drake Maye is a top ten quarterback right now in the NFL. The turnovers are killing him and the team. The defense has been stout and they may finally be getting Christian Gonzalez back to help shore up the pass defense. That is scary considering the Patriots rush defense is ranked 2nd in the NFL – giving up only 60.2 yards per game.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Panthers 13. Take the PATRIOTS and the OVER.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers — Spread: SF −3.5 | Over/Under: 47.5

Brock Purdy came close to starting last week after being projected to miss a few games due to shoulder and toe injuries. There should be a good chance he is back this week against Jacksonville. I can't believe I am going to write this, but... do you really need to rush him back when Mac Jones is 2-0 in his place?

Prediction: Jaguars 20, Niners 19. Take the JAGUARS and the UNDER.

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs – Spread: BAL -2.5 | Over/Under: 48.5

Can you believe one of these two teams is going to be 1-3 after this week? Stop me if you've already heard that one.

The Ravens laid an egg against the Lions on Monday night. Derrick Henry all of a sudden has a fumbling problem for the first time in his career at the age of 31. Zay Flowers disappears from the offense for quarters at a time. Something seems missing with the Ravens.

We know what's missing from the Chiefs – receivers. Patrick Mahomes has been trying to do everything himself. He is on pace to rush for 700+ yards this year. His career high for rushing yards in a season is 389 in 2023. The Chiefs cannot keep playing this way and be successful.

Prediction: Ravens 23, Chiefs 19. Take the RAVENS and the UNDER.

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams — Spread: LAR −3.5 | Over/Under: 50.5

This Sunday can't come fast enough for the Rams. They are dying to get rid of last week's bad taste out of their collective mouths. The Colts just keep galloping along. That 46-yard spinning touchdown run by Jonathan Taylor was ridiculous. He leads the NFL with 338 yards rushing.

Prediction: Rams 30, Colts 23. Take the RAMS and the OVER.

Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders – Spread: CHI -1.5 | Over/Under: 47.5

I said last week that I wouldn't give the Bears any respect until they proved to me they could win. Well, they did last week by destroying the Cowboys, 31-14, at home. Caleb Williams looked like a first overall pick – throwing for 4 TD and almost 300 yards. It was the first time in his career he wasn't sacked. He also didn't throw an interception. Might we look back at this game as the turning point in his career?

Prediction: Bears 27, Raiders 17. Take the BEARS and the UNDER.

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys — Spread: GB −6.5 | Over/Under: 47.5

The Cowboys come back home to Dallas after a disastrous trip to Chicago. How will the fans welcome them? The Packers got a big piece of humble pie against the Browns after blowing a 10-0 lead. The Cowboys and Dak Prescott always play much better at home, but it won't be enough. They will be without CeeDee Lamb for 3-4 weeks with a high ankle sprain. We've seen the issues with George Pickens in Pittsburgh when he is WR1. The Cowboys season may already be over.

Prediction: Packers 34, Cowboys 16. Take the PACKERS and the OVER.

Monday

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins — Spread: MIA −2.5 | Over/Under: 45.5

Hey, one of these AFC East teams will be getting their first win of the season this week. Unless the game ends in a tie. Who knows? It might. I give the edge to the Dolphins based solely on home field advantage, though if the team struggles early, that home crowd may quickly turn into a disadvantage.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Jets 20. Take the DOLPHINS and the UNDER.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos — Spread: DEN −7.5 | Over/Under: 44.5

I wrote last week that the Bengals could do a lot worse than having Jake Browning as their backup quarterback to replace the injured Joe Burrow. Is it too late to retract that? Browning threw for only 140 yards and had two interceptions in the 48-10 massacre at the hands of Carson Wentz and the Vikings.

The Broncos were everyone's darling coming into the season, but they are 1-2. Bo Nix is no where near the quarterback he was his rookie year. He has thrown for 176, 206, and 153 yard in the first three game, respectively. That's not going to get it done... except this week.

Prediction: Broncos 26, Bengals 13. Take the BRONCOS and the UNDER.