Week 7 NFL predictions: Patriots and Colts return to the top of the AFC
Look at what we have here – the Patriots are back atop the AFC East. And it is mid-October. That hasn't happened since 2019. Hard to believe for a fan base that was spoiled for two decades of unbridled success – actually three decades, if you want to include the Drew Bledsoe days, which weren't bad at all.
It continues to be a wacky season. The Steelers are the only team above .500 in what was expected to be a competitive AFC North, headed by Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
The Indianapolis Colts are in the driver's seat in the AFC with a 5-1 record and castoff Daniel Jones as their starting quarterback. Jacksonville and rookie head coach Liam (I almost typed "Neeson") Coen are nipping at their heels (or, should I say, hooves) at 4-2.
The Bills and the Eagles find themselves on two-game losing streaks after starting out 4-0. The Chiefs have crept back to .500 after starting out 1-3.
And all that is just the AFC!
With all the craziness, I am pretty happy with my results so far this season. There's plenty of time to improve on these numbers:
Last Week
- Straight Up: 10-5
- Against the Spread (ATS): 7-8
- Over/Under: 8-7
For the Season
- Straight Up: 57-34-1 (61.96%)
- Against the Spread (ATS): 48-46 (51.06%)
- Over/Under: 43-49 (46.74%)
Let's get to Week 7 and see what it has in store for us.
Thursday Night Football
Steelers @ Bengals — Spread: Steelers −5.5 | O/U: 43.5
I really want to see Aaron Rodgers fail in the worst way. This game will have the feel of an old-timer's game with the 41-year-old Rodgers going up against the 40-year-old Joe Flacco. Flacco was traded to the Bengals just a week ago, but learned the playbook good enough to throw the ball 45 times last week. It is the third time this year in five games that he has had exactly 45 attempts. Who do these teams think he is – Dan Marino? I fully expect to see Flacco's arm fall off during a game as he walks back to the huddle one of these times.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Bengals 20. Take the STEELERS and the OVER.
Sunday Slate
Rams @ Jaguars — Spread: Rams −3 | O/U: 45.5
The London Jaguars are back at their home-away-from-home. The Jaguars have played the most games in London of any team. This will be their 14th game there and they have an overall record of 7-6 in those games. The Rams will likely be without their stud wide receiver Puka Nacua after he suffered a low-ankle sprain last week against Baltimore.
Prediction: Rams 24, Jaguars 17. Take the RAMS and the UNDER.
Eagles @ Vikings — Spread: Eagles −2.5 | O/U: 43.5
The sky is falling in Philadelphia. The Eagles have lost two in a row. The Eagles have actually allowed more points than they've scored this year. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith aren't happy. It almost seems as if the Eagles have deviated away from what won them a Super Bowl by trying to force feed their angry birds. Jalen Hurts has passed 38 and 33 times in their two losses to Denver and the Giants. After Week 3 last year, he never attempted 33 passes or more. That's when the Eagles were at their best.
JJ McCarthy might be healthy enough to start this week, coming back from an ankle injury in Week 2. But it doesn't sound like Minnesota is ready to just hand him his job back. There has been talk this week about the Vikings making the wrong decision allowing Sam Darnold to leave to Seattle. The Vikings may be wise to let Carson Wentz start, at least, one more game as he would be taking on the team he had his best years with.
Prediction: Vikings 20, Eagles 17. Take the VIKINGS and the UNDER.
Patriots @ Titans — Spread: Patriots −7 | O/U: 42.5
I am trying to practice some restraint here. Everyone is hyping up the Patriots right now. The over/under on most every sportsbook for the Patriots season win total is now 10.5. Drake Maye, like I predicted prior to the Buffalo game, is beginning to be mentioned in MVP talks.
The Titans fired their head coach this week. The head coach they fired is the one the Titans hired to replace Mike Vrabel. Safe to say that was a big mistake. Vrabel will look to remind them this week. Vrabel will not ease off the gas pedal and he is not driving a driving school car anymore.
Prediction: Patriots 44, Titans 16. Take the PATRIOTS and the OVER.
Raiders @ Chiefs — Spread: Chiefs −11.5 | O/U: 45.5
The Chiefs got Xavier Worthy back a couple of weeks ago and now, this week, they get their top wideout, Rashee Rice, back. That will relegate guys like Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster back to where they belong – at the end of the bench. Sunday can't come fast enough for Patrick Mahomes. He must feel like a kid trying to sleep before Christmas morning. He has all his toys back.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Raiders 16. Take the CHIEFS and the OVER.
Panthers @ Jets — Spread: Panthers −1.5 | O/U: 42.5
The Jets are just so bad. If you need any proof, just watch the way they handled the last two minutes of the first half last week. It was so obvious the coaches had no clue how to handle time management. Poor Justin Fields had his hands up in the air trying to get some direction from the coaches on what they wanted – run clock or hustle to the line to try and score before the half.
New York called a timeout when they failed to convert on 3rd-and-2 with 1:04 left in the half. Everyone thought it was Denver using their last timeout so they could have time when they got the ball back. No, it was the Jets.
And the reason they called the timeout? They had to get squared away on the fake punt they were about to run. So much for the element of surprise. They did barely get the first down despite all the Denver coaches waving and screaming before the play – "FAKE!!!"
So with less than a minute left and having just barely converted a risky fake punt, do the Jets try to ride the momentum and push the ball downfield for a score? No, they hand off to Breece Hall for a short gain.
Tick, tick, tick.
Then Fields gets sacked (instead of throwing the ball away, which he had a chance to).
Tick, tick, tick.
Fields looks over to the sideline as the clock is winding down.
Do you want me to call a timeout? Should I hurry the team to the line to run another play?
At least seven seconds wind off the clock before Aaron Glenn called a timeout with 37 seconds left and the ball just short of midfield. On 3rd-and-7 with no timeouts left, Fields hits a receiver over the middle for six yards setting up a 4th-and-1.
Tick, tick, tick.
The Jets players are looking to the sidelines. The coaches on the sidelines are looking at each other. Glenn is looking down at his headset pack on his waist trying to figure out which button is which. Before you know it, the game clock reads triple zeros.
At the very least, snap the ball with two seconds left and heave a Hail Mary pass. The TV cameras pan to Aaron Glenn jogging off the field and here comes wide receiver Garrett Wilson yelling and pointing in his face.
Oh, wait. Where was I? Oh yeah, making predictions. I thought I was a Jets beat writer for a second. Did I mention Wilson isn't playing this game?
Prediction: Panthers 27, Jets 17. Take the PANTHERS and the OVER.
Dolphins @ Browns — Spread: Browns −2.5 | O/U: 40.5
Now that the first domino has fallen, it will be easier for the other dominoes to fall. The Titans fired Brian Callahan this week and Mike McDaniel shouldn't be far behind. He has lost his team as evidenced by Tua Tagovailoa's postgame press conference last week after another loss when he said players are showing up late, or not showing up at all, to meetings and not facing any repercussions.
Tua has tried, since, to walk back his comments but it's too late. The Dolphins are a dysfunctional team. Don't be surprised if Tua gets benched during this game... and McDaniel gets fired after.
Prediction: Browns 17, Dolphins 16. Take the DOLPHINS and the UNDER.
Saints @ Bears — Spread: Bears −5.5 | O/U: 46.5
The Saints showed me something last week in their loss to the Patriots – something besides having the officials in their back pocket at home. Despite quarterback Spencer Rattler only having won one of the twelve games he has started in his young career, he has shown some development under first year head coach, Kellen Moore. It is easy to forget that Rattler was once one of the most coveted high school quarterbacks in the country. He has thrown for over 200 yards in every games this year except one. He also has thrown only one interception.
Prediction: Bears 30, Saints 26. Take the SAINTS and the OVER.
Giants @ Broncos — Spread: Broncos −7 | O/U: 40.5
Jaxson Dart has been a great story for the Giants so far. His play in the Giants' upset victory over the Eagles last Thursday was superhuman. Here's the thing – it's not sustainable. His reckless style is going to get him killed. And his head coach doesn't care as evidenced by Brian Daboll going off on a doctor on the sidelines when Dabboll thought the doctors were taking too much time with Dart under the blue tent after Dart took one of many wicked hits. If Dart is forced to exit a game – which seems inevitable – Russell Wilson is horrible, and his head coach and the fans know it.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Giants 19. Take the BRONCOS and the UNDER.
Colts @ Chargers — Spread: Chargers −1.5 | O/U: 48.5
This could be a preview of the AFC Championship.
What? No Chiefs? No Ravens? Nope.
Right now the Colts and Chargers may be the toast of the AFC even though the Chargers seem to be crumbling like a piece of burnt toast due to their injuries. Justin Herbert is going to have to shoulder even more of the burden trying to get the Chargers' offense to score more than 20 points every game. That won't be enough when the Colts have a running back who can score three touchdowns every game.
Prediction: Colts 29, Chargers 26. Take the COLTS and the OVER.
Packers @ Cardinals — Spread: Packers −6.5 | O/U: 44.5
The Cardinals were without Kyler Murray last week. They had already lost their top two running backs in James Conner and Trey Benson. Now this week, they may be without Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion). They just seem to be a snake bit organization – appropriate for a team that plays in the desert in Arizona.
The Packers never seem to blow anybody out despite being the darling of several prognosticators.
Prediction: Packers 24, Cardinals 16. Take the PACKERS and the UNDER.
Commanders @ Cowboys — Spread: Commanders −2.5 | O/U: 54.5
This one should be fun. The Cowboys have an explosive offense, but they are even more explosive at home. Dak Prescott's home/away splits are dramatic. He is far better at home. And this week he may be getting CeeDee Lamb back. Lamb's absence has helped Prescott and newcomer George Pickens build a rapport.
Jayden Daniels just goes about his business in ho-hum fashion. Nothing rattles him. The emergence of running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt has helped offset a clearly hobbled Daniels. Buckle up, boys!
Prediction: Cowboys 33, Commanders 31. Take the COWBOYS and the OVER.
Falcons @ 49ers — Spread: 49ers −2.5 | O/U: 47.5
Hello, Bijan Robinson. I see you – and so did everyone else in the country on primetime Monday Night Football. The eighth overall pick in the 2023 draft gets overshadowed by running backs like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor because the Falcons are always a non-factor, but he rushed for 1,456 yards last year while catching 61 passes. The Falcons lined him up everywhere on Monday night. Sometimes I was questioning if they had converted him to a slot receiver. The Falcons defense is for real, as they held Josh Allen and the Bills to only 14 points. What do you think they will do to Mac Jones, or Brock Purdy?
Prediction: Falcons 20, San Francisco 19. Take the FALCONS and the UNDER.
Monday Night Football
Buccaneers @ Lions — Spread: Lions −4.5 | O/U: 53.5
Are you ready for some football? I wrote last week that the NFL should just put Baker Mayfield on every week during prime time. Well, this week, I get my wish. And it will be against the Lions.
Who cares that he may be without Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans? Who cares that star rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka appeared to strain his hamstring last week?
I violated my Rule #2 in Week 5 by picking against the "Road Warrior" against the Seahawks as a road underdog, but I won't make that mistake again. Or will I?
Prediction: Lions 38, Buccaneers 30. Take the LIONS and the OVER.
Texans @ Seahawks — Spread: Seahawks −3 | O/U: 40.5
I'm just not a big fan of the Houston Texans when they don't have Joe Mixon. CJ Stroud is not the type of quarterback who can carry a team on his own. The defense is stout, but if your offense can't score many points or move the ball, it is hard to win.
Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker and company can move the ball.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Texans 19. Take the SEAHAWKS and the UNDER.